Pleasant Hill, Iowa 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

166
FXUS63 KDMX 090404
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1104 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Quiet and mild conditions continue today

- A few light, transient showers possible overnight into
  Wednesday. Some showers may produce locally gusty winds.

- Additional sporadic shower chances on Thursday. Breezy
  gradient winds developing area-wide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Its been another quiet and mild day across Iowa, with clear
skies and light to occasionally breezy winds prevailing over the
state. Temperatures have steadily warmed from the teens and low
20s this morning to roughly the upper 40s and low 50s as weak
southerly flow develops ahead of the low pressure to our west.
This low pressure is associated with a shortwave passing through
the roughly zonal to northwesterly flow aloft. As the shortwave
progresses through the state tonight into tomorrow, increasing
theta-e advection and low to mid level forcing will introduce
the potential for a few showers overnight into Wednesday, as
well as warmer temperatures in the mid to upper 60s by tomorrow
afternoon. Low level moisture wont be overly prominent
tomorrow, with model soundings depicting an inverted-v in the
low levels, thanks to the dry, well-mixed boundary layer. This,
in conjunction with the low weakening as it moves overhead, will
inhibit any significant rainfall as the system moves through.
Therefore, any showers will be light and transient. There does
remain a chance for a few convective showers/isolated thunder as
well, which with dry low levels could lead to locally gusty
winds as rain falls and evaporates in the dry layer below. Even
then, instability values will be minimal with roughly 200-300
J/kg at best. Better low level moisture will be realized further
to our east, which will be where the better rain chances will
be realized Wednesday afternoon and evening.

Quick on the heels of the Wednesday wave will be another
shortwave passing southeast into the area as the overall upper
trough continues to deepen over the Great Lakes region Thursday.
This system may eventually see slightly better low level
saturation, but still struggles to find much moisture, limiting
the potential for anything more than more sporadic showers
through the day Thursday. Cold air advection with this wave will
also produce breezy conditions through the afternoon hours as
the boundary layer mixes out. These strongest winds will be most
prevalent over western Iowa, but will still be breezy in much
of central Iowa on Thursday.

A few showers may linger into the overnight hours on Thursday
night but generally diminish into Friday as slightly cooler
temperatures set up over the state. Fortunately, these cooler
temperatures will be short lived as the amplified trough
continues east and upper ridging builds in from the west,
boosting the weekend temperatures into the 60s and 70s. These
warmer temperatures will be accompanied by increasing winds on
Saturday and Sunday as an upper low spins up over the
northwestern CONUS and makes it way east toward the upper
Midwest Saturday night into Sunday. Finally, in addition to
warmer temperatures and breezy winds, we may also see few
showers and even thunderstorms as the low passes to our north,
although models are struggling to reach much agreement this. For
now, the best chances for precipitation look to reside over
northern Iowa and into Minnesota, while areas further south may
get dry slotted before enough moisture makes it north to produce
precipitation. However, if the system slows down a bit and/or
better moisture supply can develop sooner, could also see some
precipitation further south in the state as well. Will continue
to monitor as guidance comes into better agreement through the
week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Tue Apr 8 2025

Few changes from previous forecast with VFR conditions ongoing
and expected to continue through the TAF period. Various cloud
decks ranging from lower VFR to high clouds expected at times
through the overnight into Wednesday. A few scattered showers
or sprinkles remain possible overnight into Wednesday morning,
but chances remain less than 30% and therefore no direct
mentions at any TAF site. Should a shower or sprinkle occur,
they could be accompanied by some breezy winds, but with
otherwise few aviation impacts anticipated. Updates will be sent
as needed, however. Winds out of the south to southeast through
the overnight gradually shift to be out of the west to
northwest Wednesday morning.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dodson
AVIATION...05